Fascinating season-opening race in store — Bahrain Grand Prix Qualifying Report
[WATCH: Highlights from Qualifying, Max Verstappen’s pole position lap]
Qualifying has confirmed why 2021’s F1 season will be truly exhilarating: a genuine two-horse race at the top, and an unpredictable, close midfield.
Max Verstappen confirmed pre-season speculation of Red Bull’s pace-setting car by clinching pole by a sizeable four tenths of a second over Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton. There has always been a healthy dose of scepticism about Mercedes’ pre-season troubles, especially after repeated seasons of team principal Toto Wolff playing down the team’s expectations, then proceeding to ruthlessly dominate the competition for 7 consecutive seasons. I have to admit that I myself had feared that despite Verstappen topping every practice session this weekend, Mercedes would suddenly pull ahead of the pack when it mattered, dashing the hopes of a close championship battle for the eight season running. So the moment I saw Verstappen’s three purple sectors and the near 4-tenths advantage flash up on the screen, it was a cathartic moment of adrenaline and jubilation, the collective release of the pent-up fear and doubt among thousands of F1 fans alike around the world.
Being a huge admirer of Sergio Perez’s driving last year and very supportive of his promotion to Red Bull for this season, it was slightly disappointing to see him get knocked out of Q2, after his confidence in going for his second run on medium tyres was misplaced and the rapid track evolution saw his then-5th fastest time tumble down the order. He was mostly to blame for this — he ran wide on his first flying lap in Q2 and got his time deleted by the stewards, and the inevitable conservativeness on his only remaining chance to qualify could have made the difference. However, after just 1.5 days in the car from testing, to start off the season 0.3s off Verstappen (in Q2) can also be seen as an encouraging start the Mexican — bear in mind that his predecessor Alex Albon averaged more than 0.4s slower than Verstappen throughout his entire 2020 season. Tomorrow, from the grid position of 11th, he is the highest starting driver with a free choice of tyres.
For tomorrow’s race, I expect Perez to select an unconventional strategy to take advantage of the RBR’s strong race pace, starting on the hard tyres and running a long first stint, hoping to get ahead of the 6 midfield cars ahead of him starting on the rapidly-degrading soft tyres. Red Bull will hope that Perez gets ahead of these drivers quickly and not fall a pitstop behind the Mercedes. Only then will Perez be useful to Verstappen’s chances of converting his victory, as Perez would prevent the Mercedes from having the strategic freedom to make a pitstop and not lose a position. For Perez’s own race, this would also allow him to charge back toward the top 3 at the end of the grand prix, when he takes the medium tyres. These counter strategies are what Perez is best-known for over the years and his ability to manage the tyres while still lapping quickly will hopefully allow him to do that.
If Perez fails to make progress, then Mercedes would definitely try two opposing strategies to try to prevail over Verstappen — pitting one driver early to attempt to undercut Verstappen and force him to take an early stop, and then extending the stint of the other driver so that he will have a tyre advantage toward the end of the race. Hopefully both drivers Hamilton and Bottas will have the race pace to fulfil this intriguing strategic prospect. Perhaps given the overtaking-friendly nature of the Bahrain track, with several long straights and 3 DRS zones, we will even be treated to a titanic battle between Hamilton and Verstappen akin to 2014’s Hamilton vs Rosberg duel.
Looking to the midfield, Alpha Tauri definitely surprised me with their rapid pace at the head of the midfield battle, with Japanese debutant Yuki Tsunoda placing second in Q1 and Pierre Gasly ultimately qualifying in fifth place. On Friday, their race simulations comfortably put them third fastest, so I expect Gasly to overhaul Ferrari’s Leclerc who arguably overperformed his car’s capabilities to finish fourth, and potentially even snag a surprise podium if any problems plague the top 3 and Perez gets stuck behind. Watching Tsunoda, with a rapid car in race trim and fresh tyre choice, should be exciting — if he overtakes well and manages his pace he would well snag a top 6 finish on his F1 debut.
The Ferrari vs Mclaren battle will be close as well — while I don’t see them on the same pace as Gasly in the Alpha Tauri, these two teams will be battling for 5th to 8th places, a battle that I suspect will recur all season long. Unfortunately, I think Aston Martin and Alpine are slightly further back compared to those two, which means that Fernando Alonso will be happy to grab to a minor points finish on his return to F1. After a disastrous qualifying session, Sebastian Vettel would find it difficult to get back into the points and I would be surprised if he manages to, and I foresee Stroll falling back in the race with some faster drivers starting behind him.
All in all, tomorrow’s race promises to be unpredictable and nail-biting, if the past races in Bahrain are anything to go by. Stay tuned for our post-race recap and strategic analysis!
